After the double comeback, the Biden-Trump face-off begins

Published on: 03/19/2024 – 09:43

6 minutes

The facts: Trump vs. Biden, it’s official

It’s time for a rematch for the 2024 presidential election. As of March 12, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are guaranteed to win their respective parties’ nominations during the Democratic and Republican conventions next summer. The Democrat won the Georgia primary, surpassing the required 1,968 delegates. The Republican’s victory in Washington state pushed them past the 1,215 delegate mark they needed. The figures are symbolic and the duel was announced for months, as suspense was low during these primaries for the 2024 residential. But this stage allows the two contestants to focus 100% on the race for the White House. And to forget the difficult start to the campaign followed by a remarkable double comeback.

Trump, the bulldozer of the Republican Party who zigzags between trials

Remember November 15, 2022 at Mar-a-Lago. That day, Donald Trump announced from his Florida residence that he was launching a presidential campaign a week after a disappointing mid-term election for his political party. Several Republican Party leaders were on hand to support him, and many were betting on the candidacy of his rival, Ron DeSantis, in the primary.

Two and a half years later, not a single Republican stands in Donald Trump’s way. Ron DeSantis also threw in the towel on Nikki Haley, the last candidate in the primary that continued without success until Super Tuesday on March 5.

As for the Republican Party, it is now entirely at the service of the billionaire, who secured the resignation of its leader Rona McDaniel and promoted loyalists such as his daughter-in-law Lara Trump, who was named co-president. Raising valuable funds. It was a good thing for him: the latter did not refuse to use party money to pay his father-in-law’s legal expenses.

The skies have cleared for Donald Trump on the trial front as well. His strategy of pushing back the deadline seems to be working. First, on February 28, the United States Supreme Court agreed to take up the question of criminal immunity granted by the former president. The exam will start at the end of April. As a result, his most important federal trial, over his alleged efforts to overturn the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, has been postponed pending a decision by nine judges.

Another federal trial, scheduled for May 20 in Florida over classified documents, may also be postponed, possibly even after the presidential election. As for the trial in Georgia over his actions during the 2020 presidential election, it still has no set date. Finally, regarding the criminal trial in New York in the Stormy Daniels case, the prosecution said it was open to delaying it for a month, at least until mid-April, to give the defense time to review new documents.

Separately, on March 4, the Supreme Court overturned a Colorado decision declaring Trump ineligible. Other democratic states, which tried to do so in the name of the 14th Amendment of the Constitution, should therefore follow this decision and accept that billionaires appear on the ballot.

Also a comeback for Joe Biden, who was eternally underestimated

“Sleeping Joe”, is it over? The nickname given to Joe Biden by Donald Trump was a hit after the US President’s March 7 State of the Union speech. Joe Biden was passionate in his tone, reactive to the elected representatives of Congress who listened to him, and fierce against Donald Trump. The Democrat specifically recalled the criticism of his age (81 years) aside, noting that his rival is barely younger than him (77 years): “The question for our country is not our age, it’s “the age of our ideas. Hate, anger, revenge, malice are the oldest ideas out there,” he said.

Since the start of his campaign, Joe Biden, a former stutterer who subscribes to gaffes, has been attacked for his age and his perceived mental decline. His performance during the State of the Union speech allowed him to reset the counters. His campaign raised a record $10 million in just 24 hours after the speech.

Lessons from the primaries: Challenges facing candidates

Nikki Haley is definitely done throwing in the towel, but who will her voters vote for? The votes of moderate Republicans and independents will be one of the key points of this campaign, because in key states, they can make the difference. Joe Biden is determined to capture these voters disillusioned or even disenchanted with Trumpism. Until a third candidate pushed by the “No Labels” group comes along to confuse the issue?

On the Democratic side, the warning comes from the significant number of blank votes counted during the primaries in some states, such as in critical Michigan, to calls from pro-Palestinian activists who want to pressure Joe Biden to end the war. Gaza. The Middle East issue has become increasingly dangerous for the president, who has been accused by the left of playing into Israel’s hands.

What do the polls say?

Eight months before an election, polls have little predictive value, especially as pollsters find it increasingly difficult to do their job when faced with voters who no longer answer the phone. Caution is necessary when working with new methods (for example Internet surveys) and it is more important than ever to consider the margin of error.

Better to ignore national polls and focus (with all possible precautions) on polls in key states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, etc.), whose results will be decisive. The electoral system in force in the United States.

According to data compiled by Real Clear Polls, over the past four weeks, the quick pulse of the electorate has given Donald Trump an advantage.

An image that makes you smile

Joe Biden’s reaction, on the evening of his State of the Union speech, to Trumpist elected official Marjorie Taylor-Green and her MAGA outfit (Make America Great Again, Donald Trump’s motto) turned into worship within hours.

See you in a month for a new recap of the campaign in the United States!