“A week earlier controls in France would have avoided 20,000 deaths”, one report estimated

Almost three years after the Covid-19 pandemic, a study has just been published in a journal Epidemic On the effectiveness of preventive measures (lockdown, curfew) and vaccination policy. The report is authored by researchers from the University and University Hospitals of Bordeaux, INSERM and the Inria Center of the University of Bordeaux, associated with Canadian researchers from McGill University. They “worked from mathematical models and public data available in France by the department between March 2020 and October 2021,” they explained in a press release this Tuesday.

The study notes a “main effect of incarceration and curfew” and provides specific statistics. The first lockdown was the most effective with an 84% reduction in transmission of the virus. 6 pm curfew was more effective than 8 pm curfew (48% vs. 68% reduction). “Although school closures had a more limited effect, they reduced transmission by 15%,” the statement said.

Without the vaccine, about 160,000 additional deaths

As part of this study, the researchers also examined different scenarios like a no-vaccine situation till the end of the analysis period, i.e. October 2021. “Their data predicted 159,000 additional deaths and 1.48 million more cases of hospitalization in France. Absence of vaccination. That is double the number of deaths as 116,000 people died and 460,000 were hospitalized in our country due to the epidemic (according to INSEE),” the researchers mentioned.

If the vaccine had been offered after 100 days, which was initially the goal of the International Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), 71,000 deaths and 38,000 hospitalizations could have been avoided. That’s about a third of deaths and three-quarters of hospitalizations. The study’s head, Professor of Public Health Rodolphe Thibaut, comments that the results highlight “the importance of rapid and early deployment of vaccines”.

Finally, a simulation showed that “incarceration in France a week earlier could have avoided 20,000 deaths”, according to the press report. A public health researcher comments on these statistics: “The onset of epidemics is exponential. Quarantine of an entire country is obviously a difficult decision, but these results may contribute to faster decision-making in the context of epidemic resurgence. »