A complex network of Cuban armed forces that could make the succession of power on the island chaotic

Made by Fidel Castro After the victory of the revolution in 1959, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Cuba (FAR) is the conglomerate of the country’s land, air and sea forces. It is the most influential and powerful official body on the island; And Its most prominent generals play a crucial role In all conceivable succession scenarios.

Unlike what happens in other countries, The Cuban FAR has a complex network where several generals distribute power in roughly equal proportions. This means that the final succession may be interfered with Anarchy.

For starters, Cuba has four armies And not just one. This is Central Army, Eastern Army, Western Army And Youth Army of Labour. Each has its commander and the sphere of influence is delimited by territories in the first three cases, though not in the last one.

Formed on April 4, 1961 under the leadership of Cmdr Juan Almeida Bosque, covering the territory of the province of Camagüey, the eastern part of Las Villas and Matanzas. It currently includes the provinces of Matanzas, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus and Ciego de Ávila.

He was born on April 21, 1961, two weeks after the previous one. Its founder was the then Commander Raul Castro From his position as Minister of Revolutionary Armed Forces. “If we save the East, we save the Revolution!” Fidel said in those years.

It was established on June 14, 1961 and, to direct it, a “Commander of the Revolution” was still appointed. Guillermo Garcia Frias. On the website of the Ministry of Revolutionary Armed Forces it is indicated that the military structures developed during the 60s “Organic improvementwhich resulted in the appointment of the Western Army on December 18, 1973.

This organization arose out of the merger of the Centennial Youth Column and the Permanent Infantry Division. Built in Camagüey on August 3, 1973, it served as Production base force. In 1993, when entrusted with the overall management and direction of state farms, it adopted the process of economic-productive management of its units.

analyst Brian Lettell, Senior Associate of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said in his essay.Cuban military and transition dynamics” that, “if acts of popular violence took place on a large scale (…), Many squad leaders will refuse to obey orders to unleash lethal force against civilians. This will be followed by struggle between leaders and rival military units.

At a time when tens of thousands of Cubans took to the streets of various cities across the country to protest against power cuts, water shortages and food shortages. Governance is at a crossroads Between whether it represses – as it did on July 11, 2021 – or not and thus, allows population demand to grow further.

in dialogue with Infobay, Javier LarondoThe president of the NGO Prisoners’ Defenders estimated that, based on the experience of 11J, the aim of the dictatorship “Attempts to calm people down without causing excessive repression To avoid international rejection because the regime’s image has been completely discredited and its narrative is not only being distorted by the Cuban people, who have already distorted it; But also internationally.”

And he continued: “The regime is between a rock and a hard place. If you press on, your internal and external narrative will fall to the ground; But if it doesn’t press, it creates more and more demand for necessities because people will know that in Santiago de Cuba, after the protests, they gave people food. So, in other places they are saying: ‘We are going to do the same.’ That is, they are creating demand, not suppressing it, without realizing it. In fact, it is the ideal situation, that when people complain about something, they have reasons to do so, the government should respond. But it goes against the principles of a A totalitarian dictatorship It cannot allow dissent nor can it allow public demonstrations against the government,” he pointed out.

If the regime Miguel Diaz-Canel Decides to suppress the opposition of the population, it must ensure that there is unity in this diverse Cuban armed forces. But will he make it?

Brian Lettell Their study stated that “The prospects for a peaceful transition under military control are beginning to dim. It is very likely that the FAR has changing roles and missions Undermining their unity and internal discipline. At least four cross-sectional cracks can undermine command and control, while creating cliques both vertically and horizontally between groups of officers,” he noted.

The analyst mentioned:

• Generational tension: Like some Eastern European countries after the communist transition, Young officers can emerge as a powerful reformist force. Young liberal officers, dissatisfied with the control pro-government generals have exercised for decades, may demand profound changes in both the army and the country.
• Enmity between generals: The unity and brotherhood that apparently exists in high military spheres may be nothing but an illusion. It is very likely that traditional troop commanders and staff officers, including praetorian company administrators, became progressively alienated as the FAR mission changed and many officers became beneficiaries of profit-making activities.
• Deterioration in professional conduct: is a fertile breeding ground for Praetorian companies Corruption. Retired and active duty officers who enjoy political privileges emerge as a new, comparatively prosperous class, losing the close contact with the masses that traditionally characterized civil-military relations. Whatever direction the transition takes, at least some elements and leaders of the FAR will survive and play a critical role.
• Reorganization of forces and missions: Both should be subject to the FAR and their large supporting forces Significant staff reductionAnd Some institutions will have to be abolished. Military spending, facilities and weapons inventory should be drastically reduced, and FAR sectors and companies should be privatized.
• Subjecting the military to civilian control in a democratic system: The appointment of Minister of Civil Defense shall be a critical point In transition. The roles of Commander in Chief, Minister and Head of State have to be divided according to the Constitution.
• Internationalization of the Army: After the disappearance of the Soviet Union, the FAR had fewer international contacts. Ironically, some have remained with the strong United States, including high-level talks held at the Guantanamo Naval Base border. Future Cuban governments can play a constructive role in maintaining peace by joining forces with democratic nations in regional and international security activities.

Finally, as to whether they are in struggle Various Cuban military, consulted by one source Infobay Who chose to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals from the regime, replied: “I don’t think almost anyone or anyone would know because if the information is known and they find out who might have said it, based on the information, shoot them. will be given. “