It’s very pessimistic for video games… This analyst predicts a disastrous year 2024 for the industry

Game news It’s very pessimistic for video games… This analyst predicts a disastrous year 2024 for the industry

A reduction between 2 and 10%. or worse…

We’ve written several times about the downturn in the video game market and the layoffs affecting many of the industry’s biggest players. Since the beginning of the year, not a month has passed without talk of studio closures or pessimistic forecasts from analysts. In an interview with sports industryMatt Piscatella, executive director of Sarcana/NPD and video game industry analyst, made a disturbing observation about the video game sector in the United States. “Right now, my most optimistic forecast is for a decline of around 2%.” he clarifies before adding: “If we start to be a bit more pessimistic, we can predict a decline of around 10%. And if things go really wrong, it will be a little more“ outch.

As recalled Game World Watcher, according to Circa, American consumers spent more than $57 billion on video game content, hardware and accessories last year. “If Piscatella’s prediction is correct, the market’s annual revenue could drop to $56 billion or even $51.5 billion in 2024.“We read.

Not enough big games

The executive director of Circana explains this possible reduction in costs due to the global uncertainty that affects all market segments, and above all due to the lack of major games confirmed for this year.. It is true that the year 2023 is full of big titles with software like Hogwarts Legacy, Diablo IV, Street Fighter 6, The Legend of Zelda Tears of the Kingdom, Baldur’s Gate III, Final Fantasy XVI, Starfield, Super Mario Bros. Wonder or Spider-Man 2, 2024 looks pretty light right now. Circa analysts had hoped that the release of the Nintendo Switch 2 could revive estimates, but the latest rumors point to a possible arrival in 2025.

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Furthermore, even if Palworld and Helldivers II score well, Circana says the industry needs another game of its kind to come close to what Hogwarts Legacy did in early 2023.. Finally, Piscatella believes that stores will continue to experience a decline, as they are heavily dependent on Nintendo, which is betting more on the physical market than its other competitors. Nintendo still needs to release big successful games in 2024 that can make us forget the excellent sales of The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom. If 2024 experienced a major drop in its figures, the year 2025 already promises to be even brighter with the arrival of GTA 6 causing a tide in the cultural sphere. At least that’s what market research firms predict.