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The keys to the legislative election in the United States: what is at stake for Biden and what will be the decisive battles

Depending on where you vote, the questions on the ballot vary
Depending on where you vote, the questions on the ballot vary

It is common to hear that the future of a nation is at stake in each one of the elections. But in the case of the dispute half length which will be held next Tuesday November 8th in the USA the phrase is not a hyperbole but a reality. All seats in the House of Representatives, 35 seats in the Senate and 36 governorships on the ballot.

Heading into the election, according to most polls across the country, Americans are voting with the following concerns in mind: the economy and inflation, confidence in the electoral process, insecurity and abortion. Based on the solutions to these issues that politicians offer, the future of the most powerful nation on the planet that comes to a new election with an extremely weakened president and an opposition that does not finish defining whether they follow Donald Trump or gave turn the page. Depending on who controls Congress and who the governors are, the public policies that are taken regarding these issues will be.

Joe Biden’s approval ratings are historically low. According to the latest Reuter-Ipsos poll, 55 percent of Americans disapprove of Biden’s management. But from the Republican party things are not too clear either. In this election, it will be defined if the voters remain faithful to Trump and the candidates protected from him, or if the country is ready for another type of candidate.

Elections in the United States 2022 (Marcelo Regalado)
Elections in the United States 2022 (Marcelo Regalado)

Without a doubt, the eyes of the nation are fixed on what is going to happen in the House of Representativeyes All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for a vote, meaning that either party can win a majority in the lower house.

As of today, the Democrats are in control with 221 seats, against 212 Republican seats (two seats are vacant due to special elections). You get control of the chamber with 218 benches.

Most of these contests are not considered competitive. Many congressmen will be re-elected in their positions, and many others have “safe” elections due to the partisan nature of their districts.

But according to an analysis by CBS there are 81 seats in real dispute, that is, in which both parties have possibilities. Given the situation today, the Republican party has to reverse at least five seats so that, added to the two special elections (one in Indiana and one in Florida) that are expected to result in a Republican victory, it ends up with the majority in the chamber.

Historically, in midterm elections, the incumbent president’s party loses control of Congress.. This would logically give the Republicans an advantage.

Historically, mid-term elections tend to benefit the opposition party.
Historically, mid-term elections tend to benefit the opposition party.

But in special elections held in recent months, issues like abortion have energized a group of voters who don’t always go to the polls (suburban women), tipping the scales in favor of Democrats. However, the economy in poor condition and insecurity are causes that are motivating the Republican base to leave as well.

Why is control of the Lower House important? Because as one of the two chambers of the legislative power, federal laws are developed and approved there. In other words, there is very little that the executive power can do if it does not have the support of the legislature.

Depending on who gets control of the chamber, it will be determined who presides over that chamber. Currently Nancy Pelosiof the Democratic Party is the president, but if the Republicans win, the chances are that Kevin McCarthy be the new president. To preside over the House of Representatives is to be in third place in the hierarchy of power in the United States, only behind the president and the vice-president.

Among the 10 closest seats in the Senate election is that of Marco Rubio, a Republican senator from Florida.  Although this second re-election is not proving so easy for Rubio, it is expected that at the end of the day he will achieve victory
Among the 10 closest seats in the Senate election is that of Marco Rubio, a Republican senator from Florida. Although this second re-election is not proving so easy for Rubio, it is expected that at the end of the day he will achieve victory

Of the 100 seats in the federal senate (2 from each state), there are 35 on the ballot. Democrats currently control the Senate with 48 seats, two independent seats that typically vote with Democrats, and the breakaway vote of Vice President Kamala Harris, who chairs the Senate. Therefore, for there to be a change in power, Republicans must retain all of their seats and reverse at least one currently Democrat seat.

Of the 35 in dispute, 21 are currently Republican seats and 14 Democrats. In the majority it is presumed that there will be no changes, but in 10 of the seats in question there is a tough battle.

In Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin, the polls give a tie between the Democratic and Republican candidates, control of the Senate will depend on the final result. Florida, North Carolina and Ohio are expected to vote Republican, while Colorado, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are expected to vote Democratic.

Governments that keep the United States in suspense (Marcelo Regalado)
Governments that keep the United States in suspense (Marcelo Regalado)

On Tuesday there will be gubernatorial elections in 36 states plus 3 territories. In 31 of these races, the current governors are seeking re-election.

In some cases, like Floridathe choice is called (it is highly unlikely that Ron DeSantis do not win re-election). But in four states the situation is not so clear.

In Oregon everything can happen. President Biden has visited this state several times in recent months trying to support Democratic candidate Tina Kotek. But things are sticky for Democrats there, even though the party has controlled the state since 1982. While the Democratic vote is likely to be split between Kotek and a former moderate Democrat now running as an independent, betty johnsonthe Republican candidate, Christine Drazan push harder and harder. The polls give Drazan a slight lead, within the margin of error.

In Michiganalthough the Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer has always been popular, the republican Tudor Dixon he has managed to captivate a large part of the voters, and anything can happen.

In Oklahomaa traditionally Republican state, the current governor kevin stitthas a strong contender in Joy Hoffmeistera former Republican now registered as a Democrat who is challenging him for the governorship.

Lastly, in New Yorkthe situation is complex. Andrew Cuomo He came to resonate with a possible presidential candidate when he became the face of the fight against COVID 19 when he was the governor of New York. But then came the sexual abuse scandal and he was forced to resign. In his place was the vice-governor Kathy Hochul. Hochul is now seeking re-election, and although he is popular, no one dares to say that he will beat the Republican candidate. lee zeldin. The contest has taken on such national relevance that on the Republican side Ron DeSantis has traveled to support Zeldin, and for the Democrat since bill clinton until Barack Obama have come out to campaign for Hochul.

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