The surprising victory of Santa Fe in the classic 308 against Millonarios, on Wednesday at El Campín, further heated up the outlook for qualifying for the semi-finals of the League. Five dates before the end of the all-against-all phase, there is no team mathematically guaranteed in the next phase of the championship.
panorama to classify
the victory of National last night in the classic against the Medellin (3-2) and the away victory of Águilas Doradas in Bucaramanga (0-1) further tightened the League standings. Between fourth in the table, Águilas, and thirteenth, Bucaramanga, there are only five points difference, and even teams like Tolima and Envigado, with just 16 points, cling to a distant arithmetic option, although they are already eight points behind eighth, with 15 to play.
Each point counts at this point in the championship, and even more so with the change in regulations for this semester, which leaves the position in the all-against-all phase as the only tiebreaker in case of equality in points in the home runs.
The tournament schedule It is very disrupted by the modifications required by recitals and others, which this time makes it more difficult to calculate the ‘magic number’ to qualify, because not all teams have the same number of games played.
The historical average of points for eighth place, in tournaments with 20 teams and classic date, is 30.8. In practice, 31. If that factor is used, Millonarios and Santa Fe would be three points away from confirming their presence in the fight for the star of November (not December, because the League will end early due to the World Cup in Qatar 2022).
That figure would be repeated if the table with local victories is projected in the remainder of the tournament: the eighth would end with 31 units. However, that factor could change due to the large number of head-to-head clashes between the qualifying hopefuls.
The eighth today, Magdalena Union, has 24 points in 15 games played, with a performance of 53.3 percent. If that percentage is projected to the 20 dates that comprise the all-against-all phase, the bar to qualify will then be higher: 32 units would be needed to ensure a place among the eight semifinalists.
a while ago millionaires he is stuck at 28 points and has not been able to confirm his classification, with painful defeats against La Equidad and Santa Fe. In fact, of the last five games he has played, he has only won one, against Junior, in Barranquilla.
“From tomorrow we have to be strong. We’re not going to drop this for sure. We are close to qualifying, we are on the verge of a final”, recalled the Millonarios coach, Alberto Gamerowith the addition that he still has the second leg of the Cup final against Junior.
The League does not stop. Today the first two games of date 16 will be played: Envigado vs. Patriots (4 pm) and Jaguars vs. Equity (7:30 pm). There are many things at stake.
four teams (Cortuluá, Patriotas, Magdalena Union and Petroleum Alliance) are still at risk of falling to the second division of Colombian soccer. There are five days left and the accounts are not so easy due to the change of system this year.
The two teams that were promoted this year (Cortuluá and Unión) count only this year’s points, while the other two ‘candidates’ have an accumulated three-year standing. For this reason, Valle del Caucanos and samariums raise their average more the more they add, but they also drop more if they lose.
Patriots is the most complicated. He has an average of 0.92 and, if he wins the 15 points he has left, he could barely reach 1.03. If Alianza Petrolera makes four more points, it will remain at 1.04, and if Unión Magdalena achieves seven, it will remain at 1.05. Thus, the people of Boyacá no longer depend on themselves. A defeat today against Envigado would leave them on the edge of the abyss, although it should be remembered that the largest shareholder of Patriotas, Cesar Guzmanintends that the descent be suspended and that the 2023 tournament be played with 22 teams.
The same thing happens with Cortuluá, which can reach, maximum, an average of 1.10, winning the five remaining games. But if Unión Magdalena and Alianza Petrolera reach 11 points in the same number of games, the relegation of the Valle del Cauca team will be sentenced.