Analysts warn of further deterioration in the inflation outlook by 2022, as revealed by the latest survey conducted by Citibanamex.
Analyst consensus expects inflation to close at 6.7 percent this yearwhich represents an increase of 32 basis points compared to the 6.38 percent expected in the survey of fifteen days ago.
Meanwhile, the estimated core inflation for the end of 2022 increased to 6.10 percent, from 5.76 percent previously.
For 2023, the consensus estimates that headline inflation will close at 4.2 percent, which implies an advance of 19 basis points compared to 4.01 percent previously.
Faced with these inflationary pressures, analysts are already discounting a 50 basis point hike in the interest rate of the Bank of Mexico in the next monetary policy meeting next week. Of the 35 analysis groups consulted by Citibanamex, 32 agreed on this increasewhile BNP Paribas and Bradesco BBI expect the monetary authority to raise the benchmark by 75 basis points, while Credicorp Capital estimates an increase of 25 points.
Alain Jaimes, an economic analyst at Signum Research, indicated that Banxico you have to follow the US Federal Reserve-who on Wednesday raised its rate by 50 points to place it in the range of 0.75 to 1 percent-, to maintain an attractive rate differential, “this so that the Mexican peso does not lose competitiveness against the dollar.”
On the other hand, the expectations of economic growth projected in the survey for this year and the next remained unchangedat 1.8 and 2 percent, respectively.
Regarding GDP, among the most reserved firms are BBVA and BNP Paribas, who project that the economy will only grow 1.2 percent this 2022, followed by Citibanamex, who predicts an advance of 1.3 percent. On the contrary, among the most optimistic about growth in 2022 are BanCoppel and UBS, who expect a rise of 2.3 percent.