10 Reasons Not to Vote on Recall

In the last few days, many people have asked me whether or not it makes sense to vote in the recall exercise on April 10. I will not vote -I changed my mind- and I explain my reasons.

One. It is an exercise from the Government, promoted by the Government and where the only beneficiary is López Obrador. The entire operation has been from Morena and the carry will come from the game. Citizenship is out of the game. Think about it: in what scenario does the President lose? Only in one -right now we analyze it-, in the rest of the scenarios the house wins. And if there is no uncertainty in the result Рas dictated by the most elementary democratic rule Рwe are facing a crude simulation.

Two. AMLO has won the Yes, but he can only use it as propaganda if a high vote is reached. There is only one scenario in which the president would come out weakened: an unpopular, snubbed consultation and in which only Morena’s hard vote goes to the polls. The Yes already has it because there will be a carry, the real political battle is the percentage of votes.

Three. The president is not looking for the endorsement of the citizens, but rather a push in the face of the discussion of the electrical and electoral reform. What AMLO wants to achieve in the revocation of his mandate is precisely what the voters denied him in last year’s elections. Faced with the weakness of his government in security, the economy or the fight against corruption, the president needs the legitimacy of an exercise done in a manner. Let’s remember: he no longer has a qualified majority to change the Constitution.

Four. The revocation is built on lies. The promoters speak of ratifying AMLO, when the exercise was legislated as revocation. The question is not written in the terms that the law says and Morena’s propaganda is lying and misleading. The exercise sails towards failure and therefore the decree to allow officials to make propaganda.

Five. The president conceives the exercise as a primaries towards the succession. That is, what capacity do the main presidential candidates have to mobilize voters? Sheinbaum, Ebrard and others have a lot at stake.

Six. The revocation of the mandate is being used as an instrument to undermine the authority and legitimacy of the INE. No matter the result, AMLO will say that the villain is the INE. It is the prelude to a reform that could seriously undermine the autonomy of the electoral arbitrator.

Seven. It is a distraction from the real problems of the country. The president does not want the revocation to be a plebiscite on his government. It is an exercise on his figure and his leadership in Morena.

Eight. It seeks to polarize public opinion. Instead of focusing on the solution of national problems, AMLO lives in a permanent plebiscite: are you with me or are you against me? The division in public opinion strengthens his base of supporters and allows him to continue attacking the press and anyone who dares to contradict him.

Nine. Even losing the revocation, the scenario of uncertainty for the country would be catastrophic. At a time of war in Europe and high inflation, the country cannot afford to send a message of political instability. AMLO is not going to be revoked, but even if it were to happen, Mexico would enter into a very deep constitutional crisis.

Ten. It is a pre-campaign act for this year’s gubernatorial elections. Morena does not arrive in her best moment at the state elections. AMLO knows that he should be on the ballot and the revocation is his way of boosting his candidates in the six states that will renew governorships.

Henry Toussaint

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