The Bettor’s Guide to the NFL Conference Finals

Find out what are the trends to watch out for during games leading up to Super Bowl LVI

The NFL Conference Finals They are defined this Sunday with great uncertainty for the locals. The underdogs finished 3-1 on the direct scoreboard in the Divisional Round, preparing two revenge duels in the NFC and AFC Championship Games.

The San Francisco 49ers seek to become the third team in the era of superbowl to beat a team three times in the same season, all as underdogs. For their part, the Cincinnati Bengals they seek to become the second team to defeat Patrick Mahomes twice in the same season.

The Kansas City Chiefs are favorites for the 13th consecutive time in a playoff game, breaking a tie with the New England Patriots (2014-2018) with the longest streak for a team in the era of superbowl.

Mahomes is 7-3 against the line (ATS for its acronym in English) in all 10 playoff games in his career. But nevertheless, Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS and 5-1 outright this season when receiving at least 3 points.

San Francisco has won six consecutive matches against Los Angeles Rams, including each of the last five games when he has been an underdog. Jimmy Garoppolo is 15-4 ATS and 14-5 outright in his career as an underdog, the best outright record for a quarterback in the era of superbowl.

postseason trends

  • Favorites are 6-4 ATS this postseason, but they went 1-3 ATS and in the direct score in the Divisional Round.

  • Under is 6-4 this postseason (2-2 in the Divisional Round).

  • The locals are 13-3 direct and 11-5 ATS in Conference Finals in the last eight seasons (since 2013).

  • Overs are 8-2 in Conference Finals in the previous five seasons (4-0 in the previous two seasons).

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

  • Cincinnati surprised Kansas City as a 3.5-point home underdog in Week 17. The game finished with 65 points, exceeding the expected total of 51.

  • This is the 13th consecutive playoff game in which Kansas City is a favorite, surpassing his tie with the Patriots (2014-2018) with the longest streak in the postseason in the era of superbowl. New England’s streak ended in Kansas City in the 2018 AFC Championship Game.

  • This is the 35th game in which Patrick Mahomes is a favorite, tying Danny White for the sixth-longest streak in the era of superbowl. Kansas City is the 11th team in the era of superbowl in being the favorite in his first 19 games (the last four were the 2017 Patriots, 2013 Denver Broncos, 2007 New England and then-2001 St. Louis Rams).

  • Patrick Mahomes is 7-3 ATS in his postseason career, everyone as a favorite. is 4-1 ATS in the playoffs when he is a favorite by at least four points.

  • Patrick Mahomes is 5-1 direct and 4-2 ATS in his career against teams he lost to earlier in the season, including 5-0 outright and 4-1 ATS since 2019. The only team to beat Mahomes twice in one season was New England in 2018.

  • The favorite teams by at least 7 points are 2-0 ATS this postseason and 8-4 ATS in the last three postseasons. The favorite teams by at least 7 points are 24-17 ATS in Conference Finals in the era of superbowl (since 1966). The last favorite by at least four points to lose in a Conference Final it was New England (-8) in 2012 against the Baltimore Ravens.

  • Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS and 5-1 outright as an underdog by at least points this season.

  • Patrick Mahomes is 11-16-1 ATS in his career when the total is 54 or higher. It’s 31-14 ATS when the total is lower.

  • Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS as a disadvantaged visitor this season.

  • Cincinnati he has covered six consecutive games and four in a row as a visitor.

  • Kansas City He has covered six consecutive home games.

  • Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record.

  • Last six playoff games Cincinnati they’ve finished low, including both this season.

  • Since ESPN analyzes the high/low data (1986), Cincinnati is 0-7 ATS and 1-6 straight in games with totals of 53 or higher.

GAME FOR THE NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

  • San Francisco has won all six meetings since 2019 (5-1 ATS), despite being an underdog in five of those games. Overall, Kyle Shanahan is 7-3 straight and ATS against Sean McVay. San Francisco they were home underdogs by 3.5 points in Week 10 and away underdogs by 3 points in Week 18. The totals were 50 (down) and 46.5 (up), respectively.

  • San Francisco is the 26th team in the era of superbowl in being underdogs against the same opponent three times in a season, including the playoffs. The only teams to upset the same team three times in a season are the 2004 Rams (against the Seattle Seahawks) and the 1999 Tennessee Titans (against the Jacksonville Jaguars).

  • Jimmy Garoppolo is 15-4 ATS and 14-5 direct as an underdog and the bets. That is the best direct mark for a quarterback in the era of superbowl (since 1966).

  • San Francisco is 27-18 ATS as an underdog under Kyle Shanahan, including 18-10 ATS as a disadvantaged visitor.

  • San Francisco is playing away for the fourth week in a row. In the last 35 seasons, the teams that play at least four consecutive games on the road are 2-7 straight and 1-6-1 ATS, including 0-6 in the playoffs (0-5-1 ATS). The last team to win four consecutive away games was Kansas City in 1966. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, no team has won four consecutive road games without a break in between since 1961.

  • The teams that surprise in the Wild Card and Divisional Round are 5-10 direct and 9-6 ATS in Conference Finals in the era of superbowl. The last team to surprise on the direct scoreboard in the first three rounds was the 2010 Green Bay Packers.

  • San Francisco is 9-2 ATS in his last 11 games with four straight covering.

  • San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in the playoffs under the direction of Kyle Shanahan. Under is 4-1 in those games.

  • The under is 5-1 in the last six home games of The Angels.

  • The Angels is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.

  • The No. 6 seeds are 2-5 outright and ATS in Conference Finals, including 1-4 direct and ATS as disadvantaged.

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