The perfect storm, a film released in 2000, starring George Clooney, tells the true story of the fishing boat “Andrea Gail” showing how a series of bad decisions ended up leading him to face a perfect storm sinking to the bottom of the sea. Certainly Alberto Fernández is not the captain of a ship that is about to sink, but the president of a nation with serious problems facing a “perfect storm” after surviving an electoral process that had him in check. The bad decisions that were made, reiterating recipes that have already failed in the past, confront us with a dystopian present with an indignant society and that has expressed itself at the polls for a drastic change of course, which, to count for what is happening these days, it wouldn’t be happening.
The first 719 days The presidency of Alberto Fernández were undoubtedly a challenge both for him and for the rest of the Argentines. The first half of those long days were marked by the pandemic that, without a doubt, did not come with a user manual, it has been a challenge not only for Fernández, but for all the presidents of the world. Some got through it better than others. In our case, the extensive quarantine to which we were subjected ended up overwhelming the already impoverished economy, reaching intolerable levels of poverty and destitution. An uncontrolled issuance of funds followed, in a failed attempt to win the midterm elections. Now, with the reserves in critical condition, old recipes are being repeated, imposing a new stocks, in this case on trips abroad. They are the bad decisions of the past that return the consequences to us in the present. And it is what happens when you govern to win an election and not to solve the real problems of our broken nation.
Unfortunately the President with the passing of the days, despite having a more than reasonable start by putting himself at the forefront of the crisis, the lack of skill in handling the public and the constant stumbling blocks with himself, left him discredited and without credibility. As the days went by, Alberto Fernández exposed himself repeatedly and without any political sense.. As President of the Nation, he spoke as if he himself were his own chief of staff, showing that he feels more comfortable in that role than in that of president. His misunderstandings, almost daily, revealed what locals and strangers think of him and that it was summarized in the remembered epithets of Congresswoman Fernanda Vallejos by calling him a “squatter” and a “squatter” among a variety of inappropriate expressions for a deputy national.
The striking thing about all this is that we now have, after the defeat at the polls, a new political group that integrates Amado Boudou, Alicia Castro and Gabriel Mariotto, called “Sobernxs”, presented under the pretext of being “a political meeting point”, but which is envisioned as a critical line of “Albertism”, so much so that in the presentation of that ultra K space, the deputy herself was present Fernanda vallejos placeholder image. The crack in Everyone’s Front begins to creak louder and louder. It creaks so much that to the calculated current silence of the Vice President, the pantomime of La Cámpora’s participation in the act of November 17, the harsh criticisms of Sergio Berni Regarding government management, who assured that he has increasingly great differences with Alberto Fernández and does not believe the word of the president. It is a fairly transparent indicator of what is happening inside the Front of All. We must add the recent public corrective from Minister Kulfas (Alberto) to Secretary Feletti (Cristina) in relation to price control, something that would not happen if the celebration of November 17 had not existed, but which, in addition, is one more thermometer than appropriate to take the temperature of the governing coalition that, with the passing of the days, begins to overheat.
In the STEP of September 12 the electorate voted overwhelmingly rejecting a way of being and governing. That preliminary result placed Alberto Fernández against the wall. Cristina’s letter, plus the resignation of the officials close to the vice president, and the weak attempt to resist the Cristinista onslaught by the president, ended up placing him outside the cockpit, leaving the helm in the hands of Juan “XXIII” Manzur, who along with other priests came to the government to save it from the electoral catastrophe that was coming. Under these conditions, the final result of the legislative elections of November 14 was experienced as a victory for Alberto. When he saw himself outside, he realized that he had a second half to continue playing, and did everything he had to do to make it show. He even gave himself the pleasure of ignoring Cristina without mentioning her in “his” act. Alberto Fernández’s celebrations on November 17 were not a clumsy attempt to show an electoral victory, where he had lost (with the not inconsiderable flight of five million voters), he celebrated continuing in office, recovering part of the helm (no everything) and get a second chance.
In this “resurrection” lies the new centrality of President Fernández after 719 days that exposed the main weaknesses of a man whose president’s suit is still too big. Everything he did and tolerated ended up facing his own perfect storm, and that is his greatest weakness today. Never until now understood the magnitude and the seriousness of the consequences of the decisions being made (And if he understood them, it is even more serious because he ignored them). Argentina is heading for a crisis of enormous proportions as a result of the incompetence in making the decisions that were crucial in order not to get to the point where we are today. We Argentines already know that when the government begins to say that there will be no devaluation we are close to one, surely in this case we will pass the holidays, but it will be another thing to reach February or March in current conditions where all economic variables are in red, something that economists are in charge of confirming to us daily and shouting, desperate because they see how the wave comes from the front and with all its fury.
But be careful, in the current conditions we should not underestimate him because despite his permanent gafes and being the President with the most memes in Argentine history, he has managed to survive the challenges of the pandemic, despite his mismanagement, the constant the attacks of the Cámpora, and the permanent erosions of the vice president -recently dismissed in the case Hotesur, now awaiting the appeal of the prosecutor and what is ultimately resolved by Cassation and then the Court in a game that has not yet ended. Cristina manages the threads of power and Justice in her own way. She is the owner of power and from now on five million fewer votes, but she is the person who chose Alberto as a candidate for president, developing a strategy that later catapulted him to the presidency, which he made very clear when he wrote his “bomb” letter in an unprecedented event for our politics (dirty laundry is always washed indoors). It is also responsible for contributing to the current conditions that confront us today with a perfect storm that can cause its own decline.
The result of the legislative elections allowed Alberto to regain centrality, perhaps momentarily, but centrality in the end and puts him back at the head of a government that, like the fishing boat “Andrea Gail”, must face a perfect storm. The five plagues that hit our nation (health, economy, institutions, education and security) are a gigantic wave that comes before us with all its fury, a challenge that is too difficult and hard for a population that is emotionally and emotionally tired, as well as impoverished. . In the more than seven hundred days of government, President Fernández is today the one who made the most ferocious adjustment for retirees and salaried employees, who see their income draining like water through their hands as a result of an inflation that not only does not stop, but also is inflated daily with a monetary issue at this point “incredible”. Serious events are added such as the lack of control of drug trafficking and the terrorism of the Mapuche Truchos that exacerbate the perfect storm.
In the second half that has already started, Alberto Fernández’s challenges are tremendous. The storm is in sight. He regained the rudder and will have to figure out how not to sink the ship. The new centrality of Alberto Fernández, goes hand in hand with the momentary step by the side of Cristina, keeping a strategic silence these days, while prioritizing the final solution of their legal cases. At the same time, the Peronist governors and mayors, together with the union leaders, have become the new “crutch” of a President who arrived weakened in the first 700 days of his government and who will try to resume the path of everything he wanted to be and it was not. It is not something that after so much step aside, the Peronists of pure knowledge end up co-opting the spaces of power, then hindering the safe return to the centrality of the Vice President.
The November 14 elections showed that mostly Argentines want a different course and a way of governing that does not resemble what “Christianity” has accustomed us to. Alberto Fernández must now try to stop being his “own” chief of staff, to exercise the position of President of the Nation. It is a tremendous challenge for someone who lacks credibility as a result of his permanent contradictions. Without his own political weight, he must resort to someone else’s crutches. An experiment where the “guinea pig” is the population. Added to this complexity is the electoral defeat in 15 provinces, standing out the largest, and that in the cradle “K” itself, Santa Cruz, the ruling party reached a meager third place, something unprecedented in the last three decades. On December 10, a new legislative period will begin where For the first time in history, Peronism does not have absolute control of the Senate and in the Chamber of Deputies the parity of forces is a reality to which they must readjust.
In economic matters the Government went to March. Added to a devastated economy is the pending agreement with the IMF, which requires straightening the ship through the channel of reducing the fiscal deficit, the normalization of tariff arrears, the cessation of excessive issuance and the general order of public accounts , the task that Alberto Fernández has ahead of him is titanic. He will have to choose between ruling a broken nation to heal it, or ruling to win the 2023 elections, whose career has already begun – no matter how hard all the runners try to deny it. The new centrality of Alberto Fernández is his greatest weakness, exposing him to a perfect storm. The time as the father of all truth and lies will be the witness and judge of a president who wanted to be and still cannot.