There can’t just be bullish days in crypto land. In the medium term, however, crypto investors should see green candles again. That suggests a look at the Hodler’s net BTC holdings.
Red numbers in the crypto market. Despite bullish tendencies in the medium term, the top cryptocurrencies are trading in the red for the first time on Monday, August 30th. Apart from the outlier Solana (SOL), all top 10 coins (which are not stable coins) are in the red. Bitcoin (BTC), for example, is exactly at 48,000 US dollars (USD) at the time of writing, which is 0.2 percent in the red on a daily basis. If you extend the time horizon to seven days, the result is a negative 2.5 percent.
The situation is similar with Ether (ETH): minus 0.2 percent on a daily basis and minus 2.2 percent during the last seven days. After all: Binance Coin (BNB) and Cardano (ADA) are each 6.3 percent up on a weekly basis.
From the point of view of Bitcoiner, BTC dominance is also not going well these days. For weeks, this has been at a level that is lower than it has been since spring 2018. For Bitcoin bulls like Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, however, the matter is clear: This is only a snapshot. If the crypto currency No. 1 establishes itself sustainably above 50,000 USD, the “capital on the sidelines” should provide for one or the other BTC moonshot.
Hodler in economy mode
Bitcoiners generally don’t think about burying their heads in the sand these days. Because despite a short-term setback, the trend is clearly bullish, so the tenor of the market watchers: inside. The best example of optimism is a new 10-month high in the HODLer Net position.
In short, the metric shows whether Hodler tend to hold or sell their Bitcoin holdings. As the Glassnode graphic shows, more BTC stocks are flowing into the cold wallets than they have been for a long time. However, it cannot be reliably said whether the direct implication of this is an imminent price increase. After all, the Bitcoin market is complex – it would not be reliable to use a single indicator to derive future price movements. But the trend is undeniably bullish.
Stock-to-flow: Bitcoin still undervalued
Hodler understood that Bitcoin investments are a long-term game. The much-cited stock-to-flow model (S2F) from PlanB is often used as a guide. But what is the status here? A look at the @ s2fmultiple Bot on Twitter reveals: According to the modeling, BTC is currently significantly undervalued. Because instead of 102,000, the digital gold is currently only 48,000 USD.
After all, Bitcoin is fighting its way back into the trend channel marked here in dark blue. So the next few months will be decisive: will the model hold up – or was it too bullish after all?