Investing.com – On-chain analyst Willy Woo believes that sharp bull and bear cycles are a thing of the past.
In an interview with Coin Stories host Natalie Brunell, Woo explained that the typical four-year cycle observed by analysts could be replaced by a sustained rise in Bitcoin, similar to that of or other major stock indices.
“The schedule is actually for the current bull market to expire around December, but the on-chain data is currently telling a completely different story …” he judged.
“We are now moving towards the fourth quarter, but the data looks very different from previous cycles. Many have this expectation that this bullish and bearish cycle will be similar to past cycles, but if you look at the on-chain structure like that everything looks different … “
“I think it is very likely that we will not get into a classic Bitcoin bear market this time, which usually wipes out 80 percent of the market value and takes about nine months to a year before it stabilizes. I don’t think that If you look at the maturity of this market and the intersection of supply and demand from different parts of the ecosystem, we are just leaving this four-year cycle. “
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle states that BTC experiences a massive spike in the first year after being halved, followed by a brutal bear market and an accumulation phase before recovering and continuing the overall trend.
The last Bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020, which reduced the block reward from 12.5 to 6.25 Bitcoins. However, if the BTC price continues to orient itself towards the halving cycle, the next phase would be another bearish phase.
According to Woo, however, Bitcoin is in its “final cycle” before a new era begins in which there are no more obvious bull and bear markets in Bitcoin.
“I don’t think we’ll see those typical four-year cycles again. I consider the current cycle to be the ‘last’.”
Woo compares the future Bitcoin trend with a drunk who moves with high fluctuations, but still shows a clear upward trend thanks to the increasing rate of adaptation of Bitcoins.
Bitcoin continues to struggle with the $ 50,000 mark
Bitcoin has already risen 64 percent this year, but after hitting a record high of $ 64,750 in mid-April, there was a sharp price correction of more than 50 percent by mid-July. There was a brief period of consolidation around $ 30,000 before bouncing back to $ 50,000.
At the beginning of the week, however, the $ 50,000 mark is a long way off again. Bitcoin is currently trading at $ 47,653, around 1.3 percent in the red. This psychologically significant brand is highly relevant for analysts. Without a lasting break, there is little reason to be happy.
“At $ 50,000, BTC has a market cap of nearly $ 1 trillion. That is just the ‘right size’ asset for some of the big mutual funds. Doing the research and paperwork to get hold of smaller capitalization assets It’s just not worth your time to enter. Either the position is too small to have any significant impact on the bottom line, or the position is large enough to move the market – neither of which is ideal, “she said in one Mail to Investing.com.
If Bitcoin succeeds in rising above the round mark, this would give the market the necessary confidence that the most important crypto currency in terms of market capitalization is in a second bull run this year after a sharp correction from May to mid-July to below $ 30,000, says Justin Giudici, Head of Product at Telos Foundation.
Kent Barton, Head of Research and Development at ShapeShift said: “One possible [Bitcoin]Breaking new all-time highs would have many market watchers target the next major psychological mark: the $ 100,000 mark. “
The lack of viable support above the $ 41,000 mark is also a cause for concern in the short term.