New data suggest that the record run of Bitcoin (BTC) forms a “double peak”, which is all the more fueling hopes for a new high-altitude flight.
At least Charles Edwards, the CEO of the investment firm Capriole, came to this assumption in a yesterday Tweet, in which he points out a crucial commonality between the record runs of 2013 and 2021.
Attack on the second peak?
Opinions among the experts are divided as to whether the current record run is more reminiscent of 2013 or 2017, both years that followed the halving of Bitcoin in their respective price cycles.
Edwards is now using the metric “Unrealized Profit And Loss” (UPnL) to support his thesis, because according to this, the profitability of the market-leading cryptocurrency was only as high in 2013 as it is now.
“A new proof of an impending double leadership of Bitcoin”, as the Capriole boss reads from the associated graphic (see below).
“In the previous record runs, the unrealized profit and loss could never be kept above a value of 0.5, this was only the case with the double peak from 2013.”
With this, Edwards underpins the much-cited Stock-To-Flow (S2F) forecast model, which calls for an average exchange rate of 100,000 US dollars for BTC / USD this year. According to the inventor PlanB, the “worst-case scenario” is a minimum exchange rate of 135,000 US dollars at the end of the year. Even according to this model, the record run of 2021 should still take off again.
Double leadership in prospect
But other indicators also hold out the prospect of “dual leadership”.
The Bitcoin Bubble Index also shows a two-phase record run for this year.
The index had shown a value of 119 on April 14, when Bitcoin had climbed to the new record high of 64,500 US dollars. The key figure is currently 110, while the market-leading cryptocurrency has a price of 44,500 US dollars. From this it can also be concluded that there is still room for improvement for Bitcoin in this run.
In addition, when the price slumped to an interim low of $ 29,000 in May, the crypto analysts at Glassnode drew attention to the parallels with 2013.