Bitcoin (BTC) ended the week up $ 4,000. Can this increase hold up?
Over the past week, the price has reached local highs and then declined again. So the mood towards the weekend was mixed.
On Saturday and Sunday, exactly what the cops had been waiting for happened: Bitcoin overcame several resistances and climbed to over $ 45,000.
The cops see their chance, but also know that anything can happen with Bitcoin.
Cointelegraph points out five factors that could affect BTC price action over the next few days.
Tuesday is an important day for the Infrastructure Act
As in the past week, US lawmakers are continuing to put some pressure on the cryptocurrency industry.
The Infrastructure Act, as it is unofficially called, is still being hotly debated and is due to be voted on on Tuesday. However, there already seems to be an agreement on what the law should look like.
There’s a $ 30 billion problem in the bill related to cryptocurrency. The taxation for companies should be revised. That caused a stir in the industry. So much so that even US Senators have tabled amendments to change the wording of the law.
The deadline expires on Tuesday and market participants now that the crypto aspect has at least been made aware, even if the result is not so favorable.
“The first task the crypto industry had here was to ensure that Washington was aware that there was a clause in the bill that needed clarification. It was done,” said Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of the FTX exchange platform , on Twitter on the bill on Sunday.
“Now Washington definitely knows too.”
Now one can only wait and see. Meanwhile, markets may remain sensitive to rumors and speculation regarding the bill until it is final.
Bankman-Fried concluded that criticism from the crypto industry should be constructive.
“But basically: The most important thing at the moment is not that the cryptocurrency ‘makes itself heard'”, he continued.
“It’s about proposing sensible, well-meaning compromises and making it clear that that’s the goal.”
Gold hits new four-month low
The overall outlook for Bitcoin is mixed on a macroeconomic level.
Stocks performed lackluster after a sharp drop in precious metals. That could also explain the slight back on the crypto market.
Gold started the day at $ 1,763 but then fell to $ 1,686 and then bounced back. Gold has reached its lowest level since the end of March.
Bitcoin proponents usually benefit from the development of the gold price. Many therefore made fun of gold.
– Carlos Gomez (@hedgefundcarlos) August 9, 2021
“Over the next ten years we will see the market capitalization of gold decline in real time,” said investor and podcast host Anthony Pompliano commented.
“In retrospect you will think that it was so clear after all.”
Other people, on the other hand, pointed to the correlation between Bitcoin’s outperformance and progress in the U.S. Senate. They also indicated that the tide could turn quickly.
BTC price breaks resistance
In this context, Bitcoin in particular has developed incredibly well in the last few days. Of course, the bears aren’t happy about that.
Over the weekend, Bitcoin hit a high of over $ 45,400 on Bitstamp. It reached a tipping point, but then fell back slightly to $ 43,500.
At press time, it was already over $ 46,000. With that, the BTC / USD pair closed the week, up nearly $ 4,000.
“This week BTC confirmed that it had broken out of a multi-month range,” summarized the trader and analyst Rekt Capital together.
“BTC recaptured the 200-day EMA as support. This is a long-term indicator that reflects investor sentiment. BTC has also tested the 21-week EMA as support again. This is a well-known indicator of a bull market. It was a great week.”
These moving averages were previously of concern to experts as Bitcoin had struggled to make progress for the past week.
If you look at theBuy and sell levels Among the traders on Binance, one can see the extent of the conversion from resistance to support. The $ 41,500 level has become a strong support. The sellers have positioned themselves in the higher ranges of Sunday’s highs.
“A good green week for the markets”, says Michaël van de Poppe, Dealers and Cointelegraph employees.
“I’m very curious to see whether the coming week will be another green week or there will be a healthy correction for Bitcoin and Ethereum.”
Difficulty gradually climbs to record highs for several months
Bitcoin fundamentals are generally looking very good. The hashrate and difficulty are currently increasing very quickly.
After the hashrate fluctuated between two and three-digit values, the estimates now show that the hashrate is well over 100 exahashes per second (EH / s).
On Monday, 105 units / s were recorded. That is over 20 units / s more than the lows in June and around 63 units / s less compared to the all-time high.
The difficulty saw an upward adjustment for the first time in two and a half months at the end of July. In three days it should rise by over 7 percent.
Both fundamentals suggest that mining performance is leveling off again. This development is also favored by the migration of miners from China to new countries.
The statistician Willy Woo analyzes and commented the relationship between rising fundamentals and prices. It is said that “the course follows the hashrate”.
“Fundamentals are not forecasting short-term prices. But over time, pricing will return to fundamentals,” he said.
A chart showing the decline in BTC supply estimates that the BTC / USD pair will climb as high as $ 53,000.
Market almost at “extreme greed”
However, the correlation between price and market sentiment could disappoint people hoping for a sustained rise.
In this context: Top 5 cryptocurrencies this week: BTC, LTC, ICP, THETA, FTT
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index was neutral just a few days ago. Now he has very quickly switched to “greed”.
The Fear & Greed Index uses several indicators to calculate an index for cryptocurrencies as a whole. This is between 0 and 100, with 100 being the maximum and standing for “extreme greed”.
On Sunday, the index hit 74 points, on the verge of “extreme greed,” even though the BTC / USD pair rose a comparatively modest $ 5,500 over the week.
“That’s an exceptional three-month high,” said investor and analyst Vince Prince in reaction on this quick change.
A correction was made and on Monday the Fear & Greed was back at 65 and thus at “Greed”.
During the peak of bull runs, the index can easily reach 95/100. This is usually followed by a decline.